The San Diego Housing Market Slow Down — Here’s What the August Numbers Actually Show
Tristen Campanella | North County San Diego + San Diego Realtor
If you’ve been paying attention to the San Diego housing market lately, you’ve probably noticed that things feel slower. I’m seeing more homes sit, buyers take their time, and a lot less urgency than we’ve been used to over the past several years. The August numbers back that up, but they also show why this market is a little harder to explain. Prices are still holding up surprisingly well, even as fewer homes are going under contract and fewer homeowners are putting their homes on the market.
In North County, the median price for a detached home was $1.2 million in August, up 1.9% from last year. Across San Diego County, the median for a detached home was $1.1 million, up 5.8% year over year. At first glance, those numbers don't sound like a slowing market at all.
But price is only one piece of the story. In North County, pending sales for detached homes were down 17.9% compared with last August, and closed sales were down 9.4%. Across San Diego County, pending sales were down 14.2% and closed sales were down 11.3%. There are simply fewer homes changing hands right now.
What makes this market unusual is that while buyer activity has slowed, we haven't seen a big increase in homes for sale. It's actually the opposite. New detached listings were down 19.2% in North County and 13.6% across San Diego County compared with last August. The total number of detached homes available for sale was down even more—38.9% in North County and 34.6% countywide. Both markets ended August with just 2.5 months of detached-home inventory.
That helps explain why prices can remain relatively stable while the market itself feels slow. There are fewer buyers, but there are also far fewer sellers. We don't have a flood of inventory forcing sellers to compete heavily with one another, so the slowdown in demand hasn't translated into a broad decline in home prices.
What I'm seeing at the individual-home level
This is where I think the numbers don't always tell the whole story. A well-priced home in a desirable location can still sell relatively quickly, while another home can sit for 60 days or more. Buyers have choices, they're paying attention to condition and price, and they're much less willing to overlook something simply because they're afraid another buyer will take the house.
Pricing matters more in this environment. North County detached homes sold for an average of 97.1% of their original list price in August. Attached homes received 96.7%. That doesn't mean every buyer negotiated 3% off at the table; it can also reflect sellers who started too high and eventually had to reduce their price before finding a buyer.
We're also seeing more softness in condos and townhomes. North County attached-home pending sales were down 21.2% from last August, while days on market increased 14.7%. Looking at the longer 12-month period, the median attached-home price is actually down 1.4%.
So, what kind of market are we in?
I don't think calling this simply a buyer's market or a seller's market tells the whole story. It's a much more selective market, and what's happening can change significantly depending on the neighborhood, price point, property type and even the individual home.
For sellers, having fewer homes for sale is good news, but it doesn't mean you can price wherever you want. There are also fewer buyers actively making offers, and those buyers are paying close attention to value. Pricing correctly from the beginning, preparing the home well and understanding the competition matter more than they have in years.
For buyers, the slower pace can create opportunities. A home that's been sitting may give you more room to negotiate on price, repairs, credits or terms. But limited inventory means the best homes can still attract attention quickly, so waiting simply because you've heard the market is slow isn't always the right strategy either.
The biggest takeaway from August is that San Diego housing has slowed without seeing a corresponding drop in prices. Buyer activity is down, but the number of homeowners choosing to sell is down substantially too. That's keeping supply tight and helping support values.
If you're thinking about buying or selling, I wouldn't make a decision based on a headline about the San Diego market. Right now, what's happening with your neighborhood, your price range and your type of home is far more important than what's happening with the countywide median.
